Pre-Match Analysis
Day 10 - Roger Federer (SUI) [3] vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (FRA) [11]
Head-to-head
| Federer is just 4-3 against the powerful, athletic Tsonga. The third-ranked Federer holds a decisive advantage over nearly every active player save Rafael Nadal, so the fact that Tsonga has played him so closely (in meetings only dating back to 2008) is significant. | Tsonga holds a surprisingly strong record against the 16-time Grand Slam winner. Most important, the Frenchman has won their last two meetings, at Montreal recently and in the quarters of Wimbledon this year (when Tsonga took the first match ever from Federer after the Swiss was up two sets to love). On hard courts, Federer’s advantage is also slim: 3-2. |
Will win if...
| Federer will want to serve well so that he can concentrate on breaking his bigger-hitting opponent. He also has to dig in and return Tsonga’s serve well, careful not to give him many free points. He needs to prevent Tsonga from seizing control of points early and unleashing his big forehand. Federer can turn defense into offense as well as anyone who’s ever played the game, and he’ll need to do that well to keep Tsonga on the defensive. | Tsonga will need to play aggressively and connect with his monster weapons: his serve and his forehand. He will want to keep points relatively short and stay on the offensive. The all-court French player has to sneak into net and knock off points when he can, something he’s done remarkably well to this point. |
Heading in...
| Federer hasn’t won a major this year – indeed, he’s won only one title, at Doha. However, so far at the US Open, he has looked sharp, especially in his last match, when he raced past Juan Monaco, losing just three games in the process (after midnight). | Seeded 11, Tsonga has been extremely impressive, defeating No. 19 Fernando Verdasco and then No. 8 Mardy Fish in a marathon five-setter. With his semifinal run at Wimbledon and Montreal this summer, he is riding an impressive wave. |
Look out for...
| When Federer last defeated Tsonga in a major, in the semis of the 2010 Australian Open, it was also the last time the Swiss No. 3 won a Grand Slam. So a victory over the Frenchman could augur well for Federer, who hasn’t won a major in 2011. | Though a big, powerful man, Tsonga seems to have no trouble keeping his aggressive game together in long, drawn-out matches. His record in five-set matches is 7-2 after his fourth-round win over Mardy Fish. If it goes to five, Tsonga may have the advantage, contrary to what many might think. |
Know this stat
| Federer has won the US Open five times and is a commanding 60-6 in Flushing Meadows for his career. He is seeking to reach the semifinals here for the eighth consecutive year. That said, there’s one other important number, the white elephant on the court: At age 30, Federer is the oldest man remaining in the draw. | Tsonga had to survive an epic five-setter to get this quarterfinal, and he has spent 9 hours 45 minutes on court (2 hours 37 minutes more than Federer). That extra court time could take a toll, though the rain has given both players even more down time. |
X-factor
| Federer, the five-time US Open champion and 16-time Slam winner, has seen virtually everything in his career. He is accustomed to the big stage, of course, but even more important in this rain-soaked second week, he should have the advantage with all the vicissitudes of scheduling. | For Tsonga, it’s all about the momentum he brings to this crucial match. He has defeated Federer the last two times out in big matches, even coming back from two sets down to defeat Fed and advance to the semis at Wimbledon. The Frenchman, still looking to make that big Grand Slam breakthrough and win a title, has to be feeling as confident as he has ever has. |
