Pre-Match Analysis
Day 12 - Caroline Wozniacki (DEN) [1] vs. Serena Williams (USA) [28]
Head-to-head
| Wozniacki had three match points on Serena in Syndey in 2009, and that was before the world No. 1 had ascended into the top 10. While it was possible to look for solace in a solid record against Venus, Wozniacki has never taken a set off the older Williams in four meetings, though the most recent of those came in 2008, when Wozniacki was ranked no. 43. | Unsurprisingly, Serena has never lost to Wozniacki, though they have only played twice, both meetings coming in 2009. In a close encounter in Sydney in January of that year, Serena stormed back from match points down in the third set to win 6-7 (5), 6-3, 7-6 (3). Leading 6-4, 0-1 at the Tour Championships later that year, Serena got a win out of a injury-induced retirement from the Dane. |
Will win if...
| She plays every point like it's the last and attacks when she has her opportunities. Wozniacki has to bring her A-game, serve solidly and make sure to keep the unforced errors to a minimum -- as in, maybe a few for the entire match. If she can draw Serena out of her comfort zone, she could see errors begin to pop in, encouraging her to move forward at times and be aggressive. But if Serena is on top of the ball, Wozniacki could find herself in a losing track meet. | She serves well. If Serena is raining bombs this evening on Arthur Ashe Stadium, Wozniacki has little chance. But seeing that the world's No. 1 has made a living by being a human backboard, Serena will have to hit a few extra balls and stay down through her groundstrokes. If she's a little impatient or generally just a little bit off her game, she could find herself in a precarious third set with her equally-fit opponent. |
Heading in...
| Wozniacki withstood a solid challenge in the fourth round, beating 2004 Open champ Svetlana Kuznetsova 6-7 (6), 7-5, 6-1 after being down 4-2 in the second set. After having a rough US Open series, she won her fourth consecutive title in New Haven and has now won nine straight matches. Her quarterfinal win over the ascending Andrea Petkovic was a convincing affair, beating the German 6-1, 7-6 (5). | Serena has had a sweeping US Open, not dropping a set and taking down three healthy challenges in the last three rounds. In the third round last weekend, Serena produced the tournament's best tennis in beating fifth-seeded Victoria Azarenka, 6-1, 7-6 (5). Since Wimbledon, she has not lost a match she's played (she pulled out of Cincy midway through the tournament) following an 11-month layoff from the tour. |
Look out for...
| Wozniacki's speed. While Serena is known to run everything down, the Dane is on the treadmill after nearly every one of her wins, registering miles, building stamina and helping her earn those extra points that no other player on the WTA can claim to win consistently. | Serena's patience. If Serena is a little off, Wozniacki will ground her down from the baseline. The American must pull off her groundies a bit if she starts the match a bit frazzled. And then? Get to net. Williams underuses her great ability in the short court, which could dig her out of trouble if it comes to it. |
Know this stat
| Wozniacki has hit just 98 unforced errors in 11 sets played (about 9 errors per set) and 100 total games (less than one per game). Serena, however, has hit just 79 unforced errors in 84 games played. The Queen of Clean (that'd be Wozniacki) must up Serena in this category to have a chance, mostly because the American hits a bigger ball off the ground. | Serena is playing her 12th Open in 14 years. She has won the title three times herself, and holds a 2-2 record against No. 1 seeds (she was top seed in 2002) at Flushing Meadows. After beating No. 1-ranked Martina Hingis in 1999 and 2001, she lost to then-No. 1s Amelie Mauresmo (2006) and Justin Henin (2007). In 22 career matches against world No. 1s, Serena is 11-11. |
X-factor
| Caroline's confidence could play a major role in this match-up. Even if Serena is playing well, Wozniacki has the game to hang with her -- if she believes she can. The Dane has been ranked No. 1 for almost a year now, but Serena has been around for little of that time. Her ability to assert herself when she needs to and be appropriately aggressive will determine if this is a two-set thrashing or a three-set semi to remember. | Serena's will to win could decide this match. If you remember, the last time Serena was in a semifinal under the lights at Arthur Ashe Stadium was in 2009, when she had her infamous breakdown over a foot fault call. Serena is bent on putting that behind her and would love nothing more than come back from that incident -- and a year's worth of health woes -- to win the year's final major. |
